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Seminários do IMPA

Palestra Especial

Predictive stochastic models of crime: modeling the dynamics of crime
Jorge Mateu

Department of Mathematics, University Jaume I of Castellon, Spain
Quarta-feira, 15 de maio de 2019, 9:30
Auditorio Ricardo Mañé

Models to predict the risk of future crime across space and time have become widely used by police departments. They, indeed, have used predictive methods aimed at reducing property and violent crimes, and to analyze hotspots of robbery and shootings among many other applications. Predictive policing methods are now widely deployed, and policing programs that take them into account can result in statistically significant crime decreases.

Crime has both varying patterns in space, related to features of the environment, economy, and policing, and patterns in time arising from criminal behavior. Serious crimes may also be presaged by minor crimes of disorder. Thus, these spatial and temporal patterns are generally confounded, requiring analyses to take both into account, and we propose considering spatio-temporal point process models that incorporate spatial features, near-repeat and retaliation effects, and triggering.

This talk revises several lines of research showing a range of statistical methods used to answer important policing policy questions using historical crimes.